Is the Dividend Era Coming to an End?

More major Russian companies are putting shareholder payouts on hold. Issuers in the gas, metals and property sectors have already skipped dividends for particular reporting periods.

On July 8, Polyus became the centre of attention: management recommended suspending payouts until 2030, and the board took note of the proposal. Following the news, the shares lost more than 26% in one day. Polyus decision.

Why Are Companies Withholding Dividends?

The main issue is not that profits have suddenly disappeared, but that cash has become more valuable:

• expensive debt makes loan repayment more attractive than shareholder distributions;
• a strong ruble reduces exporters’ revenue when converted into rubles;
• major investment projects require substantial capital;
• companies are building reserves as costs, taxes and uncertainty rise.

The 2026 Paradox

Dividends have not disappeared. One estimate suggests that Russian public companies could distribute around ₽3.5 trillion in 2026 — 10% less than in 2025 and 19% below the 2024 record. The market is not becoming dividend-free, but payouts are increasingly concentrated among fewer issuers. Dividend estimate.

Retail investors have shifted noticeably towards fixed income. In June, they invested ₽231 billion in bonds and ₽30.2 billion in equities. Yet equity inflows themselves were almost six times higher year on year. It is therefore inaccurate to say that money is simply “leaving stocks”: predictable bond yields are competing with equities much more strongly. Moscow Exchange data.

How Should Investors Choose Stocks Now?

Look beyond the headline dividend yield and examine:

• free cash flow after capital expenditure;
• debt and interest costs;
• dividend policy and payment history;
• how retained cash will be used;
• whether the investment case still works with zero dividends.

A missed payout does not automatically make a company weak. Using cash to reduce debt, repurchase shares or fund a profitable project may create value. But holding cash without a clear plan is a warning sign. Conversely, a stable dividend does not prove financial strength if it is funded with new borrowing.

The Takeaway

Buying a stock only for an expected payout is no longer enough. Investors need to assess the underlying business, balance sheet and total return — share-price performance plus dividends — while diversifying across instruments and currencies.

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This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.